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Turner is here for the duration, - at least for now


UNION-TRIBUNE

December 3, 2008


The head coach has been addressed. End of story. Close of subject.

Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith's abrupt answers to pointed questions about Norv Turner may not be what you want to hear, but they're about all you're likely to get.

Smith is under no legal obligation to justify his decision to retain his coach, much less to have it ratified through public referendum, so the mob clamoring for Turner's scalp is advised to disperse.

There's nothing to see here. Not now, at least. So you might as well move along until the season ends, until it bottoms out, or both.

Remember that votes of confidence are not considered binding in the National Football League; that circumstances shift, minds change and public positions evolve.

But remember, too, that the Chargers' pathetic showing has been an ensemble production with numerous authors and multiple levels of blame, including (in prominent roles) underperforming players and miscalculating management.

Including A.J. Smith himself.

Once you start pointing fingers on Murphy Canyon Road, it could be tough to tell where to stop.

So maybe the best thing Norv Turner has going for him right now is guilt by association. Maybe, the harder you look, the harder it is to hold one man responsible for the collective collapse of a team that started its season with Super Bowl aspirations.

Unless, of course, that one man is Ed Hochuli, the referee.

When Chargers President Dean Spanos reversed his 2007 decision to retain Marty Schottenheimer, and dumped him in the wake of a 14-2 season, he was tempting fate, taunting karma and fairly begging for the whole thing to blow up in his bespectacled face.

“If you're going to fire a coach who goes 14-2, the next guy had better be Vince Lombardi,” one seasoned NFL official said Sunday night.

Yet citing the “dysfunctional” relationship between Schottenheimer and Smith – still inadequately explained and inexcusably childish – Spanos chose cohesion at the expense of continuity and was rewarded for his gamble with a trip to the AFC Championship Game.

Spanos owes Norv Turner for that remarkable run. So, too, does Smith. If management's loyalty now seems misplaced, if the charisma-challenged Turner continues to appear miscast in a leadership role, the embattled coach is bound to be accorded some slack for beating Indianapolis on the road in the playoffs with Billy Volek at quarterback.

While the mob has a short memory and no tolerance for disappointment, management's considerations are customarily more complex. They include contractual commitments, potential fallout from fans and players, mitigating factors, the attractiveness of attainable alternatives and the start-up costs (both financial and psychic) of starting from scratch with a new coaching staff.

Try putting yourself in their place. Having taken the prodigious leap of faith entailed in replacing a coach with 200 career victories with another who arrived with a record of 58-82-1, how do Spanos and Smith suddenly reverse their field again without looking silly?

Answer: Bill Cowher or Pete Carroll.

Probability: doubtful.

Perhaps Smith could coexist with a personality as powerful as Cowher. Maybe USC's Carroll could be induced to return to the pro game by absolute autonomy. But neither of these scenarios, floated with the frequency of bathtub toys, would seem the smart way to bet.

Bodog.com, which last week listed Turner as an even-money proposition to return as the Chargers' head coach in 2009, has since adjusted its odds (slightly) to reflect an influx of wagers influenced by the adamant support of Spanos and Smith.

Now, you must lay $120 to win $100 on Turner surviving.

Disclaimer: Money moves the line, but it's not always the smart money.

“Although A.J. Smith has publicly stated that Turner's job is not in jeopardy, we firmly believe that someone will lose their job in regards to this season and we believe that to be Turner,” said Richard Gardner, Bodog's sportsbook manager.

“A.J. Smith may have to remove Turner, if only to save his own job, as surely management will question some of the moves he made this season . . . If it comes down to it, Turner could take the fall for some of Smith's failures.”

That's the way things typically work in pro sports. When a team falls apart, the general manager starts searching for a convenient scapegoat and the coach begins packing his (golden) parachute. Eventually, it might work that way with the Chargers, too.

But when Spanos sided with Smith against Schottenheimer, he did so with the understanding that he was trading reliability for risk. When Smith sold Spanos on Norv Turner, it was not as a quick fix but as a long-term investment.

Turner cannot continue to lose without consequences. He might not be able to survive a 4-12 finish or a locker room insurrection. Yet barring the bottom falling out, there's every reason to believe he'll be back.

His situation has already been addressed. End of story. Close of subject.



Tim Sullivan: (619) 293-1033; tim.sullivan@uniontrib.com

 


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